Is Mass. in a recession? Healey team pitches protective stop-gap funding amid economic uncertainty

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Gov. Charlie Baker was fond of the joke about the Massachusetts economy that went like this: The secret to it was planting two institutions like Harvard and MIT, waiting 200 years, and then seeing what sprouts around them.

The research and innovation that ensued, and got the Bay State through one cycle after another, particularly in the medical and scientific sectors, is now looking shaky after federal officials took up shears. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi recently said he believes Massachusetts is among 22 states already in a recession. 

Matt Gorzkowicz, Gov. Maura Healey’s budget chief, disagrees with Zandi’s assessment. But he said that during a recent mid-year economic roundtable, an invite-only summit that included experts from Moody’s, S&P Global Market Intelligence and local universities, all there agreed the research ecosystem is the “foundation” of the local economy.

“I asked them, what would be the one indicator that would suggest whether or not we're in a recession? They pointed to the labor market,” Gorzkowicz said. “And when you look at the labor market right now, almost every category in Massachusetts is relatively flat with the national economy, with the exception of one area: Scientific and professional jobs, where we are leading the nation in terms of job growth.”

Higher ed and health care – “eds and meds” – throw off $156 billion in annual economic output, toss $4.1 billion into state coffers as tax revenue, and undergird nearly 900,000 jobs, according to the Healey administration. That’s why he and Healey went before state lawmakers Thursday to pitch her $400 million bill, called Discover, Research and Innovation for a Vibrant Economy (DRIVE) Initiative.

“If the labor market is the number one indicator for a recession, and this is our number one job creator here in Massachusetts, then we absolutely need to invest in it,” Gorzkowicz said.

The bill uses $200 million in millionaires tax revenues for a public higher education “bridge funding reserve,” and the other $200 million, placed within MassDevelopment, will be geared towards research projects at hospitals and universities. The latter will be paid from interest off the state stabilization fund.

UMass President Marty Meehan called the legislation a stop-gap measure to get the state through the next one to two years. Why one to two years, rather than 200?

“Since World War 2, we've had an economy that’s been the envy of the world because of the research that we've committed to, that partnership with private and public universities and the federal government,” Meehan said. “I don't believe the federal government, in the long run, is going to abandon that relationship.”

Do you think the Massachusetts economy is in a recession? The journal Mass. Benchmarks in August called the state’s economy “resilient,” and added that by the end of the second quarter, “most headline economic indicators appeared unremarkable and essentially normal.” I’m interested in hearing what you think: [email protected].

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9:30 | The Senate Committee on the Census holds an informational hearing. Public officials, experts and community leaders will discuss how to boost participation and build trust in the 2030 population count. | Room A-2, State House, Boston | Agenda and Livestream

11:30 | Boston Mayor Michelle Wu holds a press conference on a regional response to possible lapse in SNAP benefits. Expected attendees include Boston Foundation CEO Lee Pelton and top officials from the Greater Boston Food Bank, Chelsea, Brookline, Somerville, and Cambridge. | Eagle Room, City Hall, Boston

12:00 | Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll participates in a fireside chat with Rhode Island Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos at LGBTQ Chamber of Commerce’s Powering Progress Through Partnership Conference. | Babson College, Wellesley

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Jamaica Plain attorney Patrick Roath is staffing up as he mounts a Democratic primary challenge to South Boston Rep. Stephen Lynch. Jack Arnheiter, who worked on Elizabeth Warren’s 2020 presidential run and 2024 Senate reelection before working for the state party, will be the campaign manager, while fundraising will be handled by Zoë Goffe, who worked for Boston Councilor Henry Santana. Two Zohran Mamdani veterans are also on Team Roath, including pollster Jane Rayburn and Rachel King of Moxie Media, who is doing direct mail. Brian Smoot and Hannah Litchman of Symmetry Media are aboard for media and digital work, while digital fundraising is being managed by Alex Schaffer and Kenya Harris….

….I asked readers earlier this week to let me know about other things to watch for in the Nov. 4 election. Steve McGoldrick, the retired director at UMass Boston’s Collins Center for Public Management, flagged several ballot questions flying under the radar: Cambridge, Medford and Somerville have special act charters up for voter ratification. Cambridge is reworking its charter, updating it to include “gender neutral language,” among other changes. Medford is re-doing its city council and allowing for district-level representation, and Somerville is asking voters to jettison its 1899 charter and set up a four-year term for mayor….

….As Democrats pile into the Sixth Congressional race to replace Seth Moulton, what about the Republicans? Bruce Tarr, the minority leader in the state Senate who represents Gloucester, said he’s focused on the chamber he’s been in for 30 years. When I pressed him, he said, “Put me down as ‘Haven’t ruled it out.’” Micah Jones, an Army vet and attorney, is also considering a run as a Republican....

….When Republican Anthony Amore lost a statewide campaign for auditor to Democrat Diana DiZoglio, he went back to his day job: director of security and chief investigator at the Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum. He also writes books on the side, with the latest one, his fourth, due out Nov. 4 and centering on another piece of stolen art, titled, “The Rembrandt Heist.” The book is about renowned art thief Myles Connor and the “culmination of a staggeringly successful and inventive career in museum thievery,” Amore said.

FIRED HEALEY AIDE: The Healey administration aide fired this week after an arrest on cocaine trafficking charges had been previously arrested in 2001. The arrest was in connection with a shooting in Springfield. – MassLive

SNAP FUNDS: Gov. Maura Healey doubled the state’s November payment to food bank but again declined to dip into the state’s $8 billion rain day account, saying the state won’t be reimbursed by the federal government for the expenditure.  – WBUR

SHUTDOWN PRESSURE: A group of state lawmakers, largely Republicans, sent a letter to Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey, asking them to vote for a temporary spending bill that would restart the federal government. The bipartisan group also included Sen. Liz Miranda and Rep. Russell Holmes. – Eagle-Tribune

Two of the nation’s best hospitals—Massachusetts General Hospital and Brigham and Women’s Hospital—are uniting as one team to deliver the most powerful kind of cancer care. One team that performs the most surgeries and has the most specialists in New England. One team turning discovery into hope. We’re one against cancer. Discover more

DOWNTOWN NUMBERS: At a forum on downtown Boston’s public safety issues, residents and officials discussed a survey showing a 40% decrease in the number of residents who feel unsafe, and a 29% drop in violent crime in the area, as well as a 37% decrease in 911 calls for quality of life issues. – MassLive

GATEWAY CITIES: State Sen. Bill Driscoll is looking to loosen eligibility requirements for Gateway Cities so Randolph, which is in his district, can better qualify for state funding opportunities. – CommonWealth Beacon

SPRINGFIELD FACE-OFF: A race is still raging for Ward 1 Springfield City Council after the incumbent sued her challenger for defamation.  – Western Mass. Politics and Insight

CAPE CONCERN: The town of Wellfleet is facing a deficit in next year’s budget, and still has staff vacancies to fill. – Provincetown Independent

WBZ LAYOFFS: Veteran political analyst Jon Keller was among five employees laid off at WBZ-TV, which is owned by Paramount. – Boston Globe

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KELLER AT LARGE: 8:30 a.m., WBZ-TV. Political analyst Jon Keller's guests are Kelly Garrity of POLITICO Massachusetts and yours truly. We preview key municipal races in Lawrence, Everett, Newton, Northampton and Gloucester ahead of Election Day.

@ ISSUE SIT DOWN: 9:30 a.m., NBC 10. Reporter Matt Prichard interviews the two candidates for District 7 City Council in Boston, Said Ahmed and Miniard Culpepper.

ON THE RECORD: 11 a.m., WCVB. The guest is Senate Ways and Means chair Michael Rodrigues.

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