Here’s what to watch for in the Boston prelim

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Polls are now open across Boston in the preliminary that will narrow the list of contenders in mayoral and city council contests. The mayoral match-up between Michelle Wu and challenger Josh Kraft has already set spending records, with Kraft tossing $5.6 million into the race, much of it pulled from his own pocket. A few factors to consider:

· The margin: There are four candidates running for mayor, but Wu and Kraft will very likely leave behind community activist Domingos DaRosa and perennial candidate Robert Cappucci. Kraft has said he considers a 15-point loss to Wu a win, but the chattering class believed it would be closer to 20 points. That was before the Friday survey from Emerson College’s polling outfit, placing Wu 50 points ahead of Kraft and resetting expectations for some.

Most people I’ve interviewed disagree with that number but they agree the direction is not good for Kraft, who is polling lower than he did earlier this year, despite the record spending. While some on either side of the race privately wonder if Kraft will stay in the race after the prelim, there is no mechanism in the city charter to replace Kraft on the November ballot if he wins a slot Tuesday and drops out, meaning it will still carry his name.

· The at-large field: The list of 10 candidates will get winnowed to 8 for the four at-large City Council slots. As with the mayoral race, the contenders will get their chance to see where their strength is through a precinct-by-precinct breakdown, which the city elections department typically releases soon after the preliminary. Henry Santana, first-term councilor and a Wu ally, is widely viewed as an at-risk contender, since he had difficulty gathering signatures for his candidacy earlier this year. Frank Baker, a former district councilor with an anti-Wu stance making his first bid for at-large, has been heavily campaigning across the city and racking up endorsements from current and former lawmakers, including state Sen. Lydia Edwards, Rep. Chynah Tyler and Marty Walsh, the ex-mayor and Biden labor chief.

· The Boston elections department: The preliminary is also a big test for the city’s elections department, which Secretary of State Bill Galvin placed into receivership earlier this year. The receivership came after several locations ran out of ballots in the 2024 election, forcing elections officials to rush them to the locations in police cars. "We've taken precautions to make sure the circumstances that we saw happen last November do not happen again," Galvin said, according to WBUR. The department plans to release voter turnout information from all precincts at 9 a.m., 12 p.m., 3 p.m. and 6 p.m., as it has done in past elections.

Aside from Boston, other cities and towns holding elections on Tuesday include Greenfield, Haverhill, Lowell, and Springfield.

If you see something during the preliminary, feel free to say something. My inbox is open: [email protected]

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10:00 | The Joint Committee on Revenue holds a hearing on matters related to real estate transfer fees and higher education. Committee members will hear testimony on one of the hottest housing topics last session — whether municipalities should be able to opt into a local option transfer tax on real estate transactions over a certain threshold in their communities. | Gardner Auditorium, State House, Boston | Livestream & More Info

10:00 | Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll speaks as the health system created nearly a year ago when Lawrence General Hospital absorbed the Holy Family hospitals in Methuen and Haverhill announces its new brand identity. | Holy Family Hospital Methuen, 70 East St., Methuen

11:30 | Gov. Maura Healey and Lt. Gov Kim Driscoll announce reforms to expedite housing development. | Clayborn Development, 970 Fellsway, Medford

1:00 | Perkins School for the Blind and Rep. Steve Owens host the first CVI Awareness Day. Cerebral/Cortical Visual Impairment (CVI), a brain-based condition, is the leading cause of childhood blindness. | Room 428, State House, Boston

1:00 | The Local Government Advisory Commission and its executive committee meet. Administration and Finance Secretary Matt Gorzkowicz provides an update on current fiscal year revenue collections and the budget outlook. Director of Federal Funds and Infrastructure Quentin Palfrey provides an update on the office's work, specifically tied to municipal priorities.  | The Delaney House, 3 Country Club Road, Holyoke | Zoom

HASBRO HQ WIN: Toy giant Hasbro is moving to Massachusetts from Rhode Island, with plans to occupy seven floors in Boston’s Seaport District and bring at least 700 employees. The decision hands a win to Gov. Maura Healey and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu and takes a bite out of arguments from their respective opponents that the city and state are heading in the wrong direction. Hasbro’s announcement comes after Lego moved its North American headquarters to the city from Connecticut earlier this year. But the celebrations should keep in mind GE’s move to the Seaport, which was hailed by then-Gov. Charlie Baker and then-mayor Marty Walsh, and didn’t fully pan out as hoped. – Boston Business Journal

DOWN FROM A HIGH: The marijuana business in Massachusetts is still struggling as Rev Clinic, which once was the largest cannabis employer in Central Massachusetts and touted products owned by former baseball star David Ortiz, has collapsed. In Brookline, town officials saw a drop in sales tax revenue from recreational dispensaries. – Worcester Business Journal and Brookline.News

FENWAY CENTER SUIT: A Framingham contractor on the Fenway Center joint venture, aiming to build a biotech tower, is suing developer IQHQ, saying it’s owed $27 million for its work on the air rights project. – Banker and Tradesman

Boston is at an economic crossroads. The vitality of its downtown business district, drained by the COVID-19 epidemic, continues to slowly rebound but has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. Commercial property values have declined, creating the potential for major budget challenges for the most property-tax dependent big city in America. With Boston’s financial underpinnings at risk, what is the strategy and vision for Boston’s future, particularly for its major business districts? Join business and community leaders to explore challenges and opportunities ahead. Register here!

OPTIONS OPEN: Secretary of State Bill Galvin, who told the Boston Globe ahead of the last election cycle “quite likely, I will not run again,” said “I actually kept my options open” about running again in 2026. – State House News Service

GOV FUNDRAISING: Mike Kennealy, a GOP candidate for governor, outraised other gubernatorial candidates eyeing the 2026 race but much of it came from his own funds. – Boston Herald

PILOT AUDIT: The city of Springfield’s payment in lieu of taxes (PILOT) program has no formal policy to collect money from the area’s nonprofits, and existing agreements are inconsistent, according to an audit. – MassLive

DOGE COIN: The U.S. Department of Government Efficiency has stepped in to block grants to Harvard University, despite a federal court ruling on money from the National Institutes of Health. – Harvard Crimson

PUBLIC DEFENDERS: The Committee on Public Counsel Services reported to legislative leaders that the agency is making its largest staffing expansion in history after receiving money from Beacon Hill. – Eagle-Tribune

MEDiCAID CUTS: Rural health care clinics are getting ready for Medicaid cuts and the number of uninsured patients they serve to increase. – WBUR

RED FLAG: New Bedford city officials handed more than $2 million to a robotics nonprofit despite warnings from internal auditors who voiced concerns about the entity. – New Bedford Light

Former councilor Annissa Essaibi George, ex-senator Dianne Wilkerson endorse Kraft for mayor

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