Forecasts show Mass. holding onto its Congressional seats, but it’s early

Massachusetts politics has a problem similar to the state’s housing crisis: Demand has vastly outpaced supply.

The state boasts a deep bench of ambitious pols waiting to move up the ladder, but the available spots are few and far between, and there’s a reluctance to reach for another rung too early. That’s partly how you can get eight or nine candidates running for an open Congressional seat.

Supply shrank following the 2010 Census. Massachusetts lost a Congressional seat, and Rep. John Olver decided to retire at age 75 in 2011. That helped state lawmakers to redraw the lines in a way that avoided a battle between the delegation’s reigning incumbents, though Rep. Jim McGovern’s district now stretches across a third of the state.

Could Massachusetts lose yet another seat after the 2030 Census? The state avoided a similar fate after the 2020 Census, staying at nine seats. If current trends hold, the state is on track to keep the seats it has, according to some experts. But that’s a big “if.”

Stateline recently reported that three forecasts show “Democratic states in the Northeast and West losing House seats while fast-growing, mostly Republican states in the South and West gain seats.”

One of the three forecasts was put together by Jonathan Cervas, assistant teaching professor of political science at Carnegie Mellon University. In his forecast, Massachusetts didn’t lose a seat. Neither did Maine, nor New Hampshire, Vermont, and Connecticut. But Rhode Island lost one and New York lost two. California lost four, while Texas gained the same amount.

Cervas told MASSterList that he took the population data from the Census, applied a “simple linear model to extrapolate” into 2030, applied the estimates to the formula for apportionment, which is how House seats are distributed. “This is a projection, with many assumptions that growth continues at the same pace, and that every other state also grows at the same pace,” he wrote in an email. “The thing about apportionment is that it is extremely sensitive to the exact (relative) number of people in each state. So, [if] 89 more people were in NY in 2020, they would not have lost a seat. 89!”

Sen. William Brownsberger, one of the top Beacon Hill lawmakers involved with the 2020 effort, noted we’re midway through the decade. “The thing that makes it complicated is the trends of the first half are going to change in the second half of the decade,” he said, pointing to the potential effects of the Trump administration’s hostility towards the state’s higher education sector, and the steep drop in international net migration, which has previously boosted Massachusetts population numbers.

More data will become available in July, allowing for fresher projections. And what’s expected is not always what happens. Rhode Island was the subject of speculation and concern that it would lose a seat after the 2020 Census, but that never came to fruition.

Jeffrey Wice, a New York Law School professor and a redistricting expert who lives in Northampton, predicts litigation ahead. The Trump administration could attempt to block the Census counting people who aren’t citizens, he noted. “That’s a wild card factor we have to anticipate, as well as the severe cutbacks at the Census Bureau.”

The way the Trump administration counts people in 2030, and extreme shifts in immigration demographics, could impact a number of states, according to Wice. “Massachusetts right now is not part of that dynamic.”

Care to make your own forecast? Send it along here: [email protected].

Join Senate President Spilka, Speaker Mariano, Senate Majority Leader Creem, Event Hosts Senator Payano, and Representatives Consalvo, Garballey, and Williams, other leaders of legislature, advocacy,and  medicine for Virtual 17th Annual Prostate Cancer Awareness Day, held on March 24th, 10 am to 2 pm. You will take part in expanding a Massachusetts model of national leadership in prostate cancer awareness, medical education, research and reducing health disparities. You will learn about the cutting-edge advances in prevention, diagnosis and treatment – and Prostate Cancer Resource Project, bringing the best available quality care to Massachusetts men and supporting them every step of their medical journey. This event is organized by AdMeTech Foundation, in cooperation with the Prostate Cancer Action Council.

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10:30 | U.S. Rep. Lori Trahan discusses issues before Congress and her priorities at a New England Council “Capitol Hill Report” program. | UMass Club, 32nd floor, 1 Beacon St., Boston

11:00 | The Special Joint Committee on Initiative Petitions holds its hearing on the initiative petition advancing towards November's ballot that would change the method for calculating stipends paid to some state legislators on top of their base salaries (H 5010). | Hearing Room A-1, State House, Boston | Agenda and Access Info

11:30 | Gov. Maura Healey gives remarks at the State Library of Massachusetts' 200th birthday celebration. Event starts at 11 a.m. and runs through 1 p.m. Attendees can view a new exhibit and play library trivia. | State Library, Room 341, State House, Boston

1:30 | Gov. Maura Healey hosts a media availability with Elementary and Secondary Education Commissioner Pedro Martinez in response to Advanced Placement 2025 exam results that her office said the College Board is expected to release in the morning. | Governor's Reception area, State House, Boston

2:00 | The Special Joint Committee on Initiative Petitions holds its hearing on the initiative petition advancing towards November's ballot that would subject most records held by the Legislature or governor's office to the state's public records law (H 5004). | Hearing Room A-1, State House, Boston | Agenda and Access Info

6:00 | The Foxborough Select Board meets with several items related to the FIFA World Cup on its agenda, most notably a discussion on “deadlines for financial assurance and review of possible termination of World Cup 2026 planning by all town departments.” | Gala Room, Foxborough Town Hall, 40 South St. | More Info

Facing a young challenger out of Boston City Hall, Sen. William Brownsberger (D-Belmont) has hired a campaign manager and announced two top advisers.

Angus Abercrombie, chairman of the Greater Boston Young Democrats and a member of Belmont Town Meeting, will serve as campaign manager.

Scott Ferson, founder of Liberty Square Group, is the Brownsberger campaign’s chair. His roster of clients has included House Speaker Ron Mariano and U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch.

Cabell Eames, who runs Castling Strategies, is aboard as a senior political adviser. Her resume includes serving as advocacy director for the Charles River Watershed Association.

Brownsberger, a member of Senate President Karen Spilka’s leadership team, has served in the Senate since 2012, representing a district that includes Belmont and Watertown, Boston’s Allston-Brighton and Fenway neighborhoods, and the western area of Cambridge.

Daniel Lander, a senior adviser to Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, is waging a primary battle against Brownsberger. One primary point of contention: Brownsberger was one of two Boston-area senators blocking Wu’s property tax shift proposal.

Lander has raised nearly $90,000 since announcing his candidacy in December, while Brownsberger had just $242,000 in cash on hand at the end of January, according to publicly available campaign finance reports.

2028 DNC FINALISTS: The Democratic National Committee announced five cities are contenders for its 2028 convention. Boston, which last hosted a convention in 2004, is on the list, as are Atlanta, Chicago, Denver and Philadelphia. – CBS News

SENATE DERBY: Rep. Erika Uyterhoeven threw her hat into the state Senate ring, joining a field that includes fellow Rep. Christine Barber, Cambridge Vice Mayor Burhan Azeem, a Somerville city councilor, a Winchester School Committee member and others. Longtime incumbent Pat Jehlen isn’t running for reelection. – State House News Service

RUNNING MATE: Mike Kennealy, one of three Republican candidates for governor, announced that Peabody City Councilor Anne Manning Martin will join him as a running mate. She has previously worked for the Department of Correction. Another candidate for lieutenant governor, Wayland Selectwoman Anne Brensley, is running while publicly untethered to a gubernatorial candidate. – Boston Herald

WARRANT REMINDER: Federal immigration agents must have a warrant or judicial order to enter dorms or non-public facilities on campus, Gov. Maura Healey and Attorney General Andrea Campbell sought to remind college and university students. The reminder comes after reports of immigration agents faking their IDs to walk into student housing at Columbia University. – MassLive

SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION: Costs of building schools are going up, with the rebuild of Boston’s Madison Park High School expected to reach $700 million. Projects since 2018 have ranged between $285 million to $659 million in Lexington. – Boston Herald

DATA CENTER MORATORIUM: Officials in the city of Lowell, which is home to a 350,000-square-foot data center, are recommending a moratorium on the construction and expansion of such buildings. – Boston Business Journal

SPRINGFIELD COUNCIL: The Springfield City Council voted no on no-confidence vote as its president, Tracye Whitfield, faced conflict of interest complaints. – MassLive

OPERATING LOSS: The good news for Point32Health, the parent company of Harvard Pilgrim Health Plan and Tufts Health, is that they had a smaller operating loss for 2025. The bad news for the state’s largest insurer is it’s down by just $80 million, bringing the loss to $301 million. – Boston Business Journal

REGIONAL RAIL QUESTIONS: Is a regional rail network, with commuter rail trains every 15 minutes, doable, or too expensive if the federal government stops funding mass transit expansions in blue states? Advocates are voicing concerns. – Banker & Tradesman

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Micromobility commission issues 16 public policy recommendations

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