A 4% solution? The income tax ballot question battle has just begun

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When it comes to having a "laser-like focus on affordability" in Massachusetts, Beacon Hill budget writers and ballot question backers are not seeing eye to eye.

As the last hectic full week of business before the holidays drew to a close, onlookers can only wonder how loud Rep. Aaron Michlewitz, Sen. Michael Rodrigues and Secretary of Administration and Finance Secretary Matt Gorzkowicz groaned as they learned the ballot question they just bashed crossed another milestone.

As he allocates billions of dollars from the new income surtax on wealthy households, Michlewitz said reducing the regular income tax rate from 5% to 4% is "irresponsible." Should that measure make it to the ballot and pass, the Department of Revenue predicts Massachusetts would lose up to $4.8 billion in annual revenues. The question is polling well among an electorate where workers are also looking for extra bucks to help get by. 

Secretary of State Bill Galvin's office this week certified a batch of five ballot questions, including reducing the personal income tax rate and requiring rent increase caps statewide, to move forward in the process. 

There are more petitions to be processed, with as many as a dozen potential ballot questions shaping up to be "unusually consequential," said Evan Horowitz of the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University. The rent measure "could shake the real estate market and upend local tax systems," Horowitz told budget writers.

Rodrigues said he has "almost verbatim" the same concerns as his House counterpart about the income tax question. For the Westport Democrat, a "laser-like focus on affordability" in fiscal 2027 means budget writers must "act responsibly" while Massachusetts grapples with potentially declining surtax collections, $282 million worth of lost revenue due to federal policy changes, surging health care costs and ballooning utility bills.

But Democrats this year have seized on affordability as an issue, pointing to rising costs under President Trump, and for business groups and others backing the initiative, the tax cut is just about delivering on that message of relief for cash-strapped Bay Staters (and workers) before they are squeezed out of Massachusetts.

"Ever noticed that when a tax cut is proposed for hard working families, they call it 'irresponsible' but when they propose massive spending and tax increases, it’s completely 'responsible,' " Rep. Marc Lombardo tweeted.

Gov. Maura Healey, who has three Republican gubernatorial challengers ready to knock Healey's choices and promote their own, avoided sharing her opinion on the measure.

The recent passing of Gloucester Rep. Ann-Margaret Ferrante, who'd been vice chair of House Ways and Means, was palpable at the annual revenue forecasting hearing. The House on Thursday scheduled a special election for March 31 to fill her 5th Essex District seat.

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As ballot and affordability battles raged, holidays bound state leaders together. A mass shooting in Australia during a Hanukkah celebration ignited commitments here at home to eradicate antisemitism in Massachusetts.

"This is the most ancient of hatreds, and it has been used for centuries to strip away the rights and dignity of Jews," said Senate President Karen Spilka, who on Wednesday wore a yellow star evocative of what Jews were forced to wear during the Holocaust. In blue letters, the emblem said, "Remember."

The state's antisemitism commission this month produced a blueprint for combating hate in K-12 schools, higher education, law enforcement and employment. Spilka said the report will enable stakeholders to "all fight on the side of light and humanity." The governor tapped Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll to lead the charge implementing the report's recommendations within their administration.

Healey, who said she was "heartbroken" by the "horrific" attack on Bondi Beach, changed her Sunday schedule and ended up attending two Hanukkah celebrations. The governor and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu were raised above the Boston Common crowd in a scissor lift to kindle the 22-foot menorah.

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It's probably for the best that Speaker Ron Mariano was not on hand for the ceremony. Perched along a ledge across from his third floor office Wednesday, Mariano quipped that a reporter's question about the Boston property tax debate "may cause me to jump." The Quincy Democrat then shifted the heat to Michlewitz, a North End Democrat and close Wu ally.

Wu's home rule petition to shift more of the city's property tax burden onto commercial owners has stalled again on Beacon Hill, and some Boston homeowners will face affordability headaches when property tax bills arrive in January. The real story on property tax relief on Beacon Hill is there's no consensus among Democrats about what to do, and seemingly an appetite to just let cities and towns handle the issues themselves.  

House leaders seem to have lost their desire to quickly iron out cannabis reform, a topic Mariano identified as a priority back in March. The Senate passed its bill on Nov. 19, after the House acted on June 4. It's up to the House to make the next move and appoint conference committee members, but that option's been on the table for a month and Mariano said "we haven't focused on it" amid the Christmas season.

Meanwhile, more turbulence hit the cannabis world. Galvin's office said petitioners seeking to repeal the legalization of adult-use recreational cannabis had cleared a big signature threshold on their way to the 2026 ballot, and President Donald Trump issued an executive order to reclassify marijuana to a less dangerous drug.

Cannabis Control Commission member Kimberly Roy said Trump's action "will help remove long-standing barriers to medical research and open the door to safer, more effective treatments for people living with chronic and debilitating conditions." Executive Director Travis Ahern said the rescheduling, which still requires federal regulatory approval, "comes at a pivotal time as Massachusetts prepares for an expansion of the regulated cannabis industry through three new social consumption license types."

State utility regulators also added to their workload, formally initiating a probe Monday into all delivery charges on electric and gas bills — aimed at unpacking "the causes of bill volatility." Days later, National Grid proposed big rate hikes that could raise monthly utility bills by $24 or $25 in large swaths of the state.

"Nobody can afford those rates," Healey told reporters Thursday. "We strongly oppose it, and we're going to continue to urge passage of the energy affordability legislation that I filed and do everything we can to drive energy costs down."

KELLER AT LARGE: 8:30 a.m., WBZ-TV. The station is running an encore edition of the show hosted by political analyst Jon Keller. The guest is GOP gubernatorial candidate Brian Shortsleeve. The original interview aired in September, and was scheduled to re-air last Sunday, but was overtaken by live coverage of the Brown University shooting.

@ ISSUE SIT DOWN: 9:30 a.m., NBC 10. Reporter Matt Prichard interviews Mike Kennealy, GOP gubernatorial candidate.

ON THE RECORD: 11 a.m., WCVB. The guest is U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton.

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